At its weekend meeting, OPEC+ announced a key decision to ease its coordinated production cuts and raise crude oil output by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in June.
This move marks a significant step in phasing out the 2.2 million bpd cuts agreed during previous deliberations, signalling a balancing act between accommodating recovery in global oil demand and maintaining price stability.
A Spotlight on Member Allocations
The 411,000 bpd increase represents a collective adjustment, but each OPEC+ member's individual production share underscores the nuanced dynamics within the group.
Saudi Arabia
+150,000 bpd
United Arab Emirates (UAE)
+100,000 bpd
Russia
+60,000 bpd
Iraq
+40,000 bpd
Kuwait
+25,000 bpd
Nigeria
+15,000 bpd
Others Combined
+21,000 bpd
Comparing June’s Boost to March and April
The current output adjustment follows steady upward revisions made earlier this year:
March 2025
Approved a 350,000 bpd increase, easing cuts amid early signs of demand recovery.
April 2025
Added another 400,000 bpd, reflecting cautious optimism as vaccination rollouts boosted consumption.
June’s 411,000 bpd hike continues the gradual build-up, blending consistency with confidence in demand resilience.
Demand Outlook: A Mixed but Promising Second Half
While OPEC+’s decision illustrates measured optimism, the global oil demand narrative remains complex.
OECD Recovery
Reopenings in North America and Europe should boost gasoline and jet fuel consumption.
Non-OECD Growth
Emerging markets, particularly in Asia, are forecast to sustain steady demand increases.
Industrial Activity
Petrochemical feedstocks and industrial fuels will underpin baseline demand.
Still, inflationary pressures and monetary tightening could temper the pace of recovery.
Implications for Prices and Trade Opportunities
June’s production expansion calibrates OPEC+’s response to improving demand without flooding markets.
Long Brent vs Short WTI Calendar Spreads
Buy Brent spreads in H2 2025 and hedge with short WTI to capitalise on Brent’s seaborne strength versus rising US output.
Energy & E&P Equities
Consider majors like Chevron, Pioneer Natural Resources, and BP to leverage stable pricing environments and cash flows.
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